New football system experiment

For all systems and staking type talk, hopefully fuelling debate and interesting discussion.

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:04 pm

After the midweek games the standings are
Prem 8 from 12
Champ 6 from 19
L2 1 from 6

To solve the question mentioned in an earlier post of was the experiment started too early? With the the champ/L1/L2 entering the last 5 games the totals will be reset to zero with overall totals in brackets and as the prem enters the final 5 game run in the same will be done there. Not holding up much hope on the system now but going to see it through to the finish anyway. This weekends selections are

Prem
SUNDERLAND v C Palace 7/4
SWANSEA v Everton 6/4

Champ
READING v Blackburn 11/8
Birmingham v WOLVES 6/5
Bolton v NORWICH 3/4

Still no qualifying games from L1

L2
WIMBLEDON v Oxford 13/8
CAMBRIDGE v Accrington 6/5
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
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Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:48 pm

Again poor results at the weekend with a total of 1 result from 7 games and that came in the Championship so current totals stand at

Prem (overall) 8 from 14
Champ (overall) 7 from 22 (last 5) 1 from 3
L2 (overall) 1 from 8 (last 5) 0 from 2

There are 10 midweek games that qualify, they are:
Champ
BRIGHTON v Huddersfield 11/10
IPSWICH v Cardiff 13/10
Sheff W v BRENTFORD 13/10
Leeds v NORWICH 3/5
Reading v BOURNEMOUTH 8/13
Nott'm Forest v WATFORD 13/10

L2
Oxford v NORTHAMPTON 2/1
HARTLEPOOL v Accrington 11/8
STEVENAGE v Portsmouth 11/8
Dag & Red v LUTON 11/8
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
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Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:57 pm

Having said that this experiment is proving unsuccessful and virtually giving up on it, I did notice a few games ending draws.So next time I get chance I'm going to look back over the results and see if betting on the double chance home and draw or away and draw would make it any more successful, obviously its too late to get the odds for past games but it will give us a winning bet percentage. Seeing that although its unsuccessful I have said I will carry through to the end of the season, so may as well look into the double chance just to see if I can get anything at all useful out of this system.
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Fri Apr 17, 2015 11:30 am

Midweek results showed a slight improvement from the championship with 4 from 6 but league 2 again proved unsuccessful with just 1 from 4. However looking at the double chance results 9 from 10 came up with just Brentford failing away at Sheffield Wednesday in the Championship. So I've looked back over the whole list of predictions to

Prem 9 from 14 not making much of a difference as the results stand at 8 from 14 and the prem hasn't entered its final 5 games yet

Champ shows a massive improvement in results rising from an overall 11 from 28 to 21 from 28 and showing 7 from 9 since entering the last 5 games

League 2 also shows a massive improvement now showing 9 from 12 (2/12 on result) and showing 6 from 6 since entering the final 5 games. From now on I will be showing 4 sets of stats for analysis purposes overall results, last 5 games of the season results, overall double chance and last 5 games double chance.

This weekends selections are:-

Prem
Stoke v SOUTHAMPTON
LEICESTER v Swansea
Crystal Pal v WEST BROM
Everton v BURNLEY
MAN CITY v West Ham

Champ
BOURNEMOUTH v Sheff Wed
BRENTFORD v Bolton
Cardiff v MILLWALL
Huddersfield v DERBY
WATFORD v Birmingham

L2
Accrington v STEVENAGE
NEWPORT v Dag & Red
Portsmouth v BURY
SHREWSBURY v York
TRANMERE v Oxford
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:32 pm

Weekend results

Prem 3 from 5 on both the result and double chance making the totals now at result= 11/19, double chance = 12/19

Championship only 1 from 5 on the results but all 5 correct on the double chance with the totals now at result overall 12/33, result last 5 games = 6/14, double chance overall 26/33, double chance last 5 games 12/14

League 2 poor results all round with only 2 from 5 on the result and 3 from 5 on the double chance with totals now at result overall 4/17, result last 5 games = 3/11, double chance overall 12/17, double chance last 5 games 9/11
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:36 pm

With few midweek games being played we only have 4 selections but it does produce our first selections from League 1

Championship
Blackburn v MILLWALL
READING v Birmingham

League 1
SCUNTHORPE v Bradford
MK DONS v Doncaster
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:37 pm

Poor results again from the championship with 0/2 on both result and double chance
League 1 faired a little better with 1/2 on the result and 2/2 on the double chance

With only 2 games now left in all but the prem, the lines have been moved to 7 points and will drop to 4 points for the final games of the season, the prem lines will remain at 10 points until entering the final 2 games then will follow suit.

This weekends selections are

Prem
Crystal Palace v HULL
NEWCASTLE v Swansea
Stoke v SUNDERLAND
QPR v West Ham
Everton v MAN U

Champ
Reading v BRENTFORD
Fulham v MIDDLESBROUGH
IPSWICH v Nottm Forest
BOURNEMOUTH v Bolton

L1
SCUNTHORPE v Gillingham
Peterborough v CRAWLEY
Fleetwood v COLCHESTER
NOTTS COUNTY v Doncaster

L2
WYCOMBE v Morecambe
York v NEWPORT
BURY v Wimbledon
STEVENAGE v Carlisle

Again no bets on these selections for me, I gave up on that very early in the experiment, now just seeing it through to the finish, to hopefully analyse and come back next year with something that actually works.
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:56 am

Again a mixed bag of results from the weekend with the prem 1/5 on the result and 3/5 on the double chance, the championship with 3/4 on both the result and double chance, league 1 3/4 on both the result and double chance and league 2 3/4 on both the result and double chance.

Only 1 selection qualifies midweek

ROTHERHAM v Reading
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:33 pm

Woo hoo the system works! A 100% strike rate on the midweek games for both the result and double chance.

Ok joking aside there was just the one midweek game and entering the final weekend of games, I've made the decision to leave out all games with teams like Norwich in, guaranteed play offs and cant make automatic so may rest players in the lead up to the play offs and with team selections unknown these games have been ignored along with those already relegated and already league winners for the reasons mentioned in an early post. So this weekends selections are:-

Prem
SWANSEA v Stoke
ASTON VILLA v Everton
West Ham V BURNLEY
CHELSEA v Crystal Palace

Champ
WATFORD v Sheff Wed
Blackburn v IPSWICH
Charlton v BOURNEMOUTH
DERBY v Reading

L1
Gillingham v NOTTS COUNTY
CREWE v Bradford

L2
Cambridge v BURTON
Morecambe v SOUTHEND
Northampton v WYCOMBE
NEWPORT v Oxford
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Fri May 08, 2015 12:32 pm

Another set of mixed results last weekend and I'm now just going through the motions to follow Thi through to the end

Last weekends results produced 3 from 4 correct on both result and double chance in the prem
1 from 4 on the championship results and only 2/4 on th double chance
L1 showed 0/2 on both result and double chance
And L2 2/4 on both outcomes

Just 3 games qualify for the system this weekend which are:-
Everton v SUNDERLAND
ASTON VILLA v West Ham
Stoke v TOTTENHAM

Totals for all leagues to follow the final round of matches from the prem.
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

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