New football system experiment

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New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:56 pm

I'm usually, more of a horses gambler than football, but have devised a new system to experiment with towards the end of the season and thought id share it. Untried at the moment but you can follow it here and monitor its progress before deciding if it has any credit. The way its devised should either give really short odds or decent odds, but can be altered to your preference.

The system is quite basic really its based on backing against the teams with nothing to play for.

Only basing this on English league football at present but "IF" it proves successful there's no reason why it wouldn't work in non league, Scottish or foreign football too

At Thi stage of the season I've decided on a 10 point line, 10 points below 5th for the prem and 10points below playoffs in the lower leagues and 10 points above relegation in all leagues.

Basically draw to lines across the leagues at the stated values, any teams falling between these lines playing a team outside of the line back them to lose. Basically any team with something to play for to beat a team with nothing to play for.

Hope this makes sense
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
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Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Sat Mar 14, 2015 4:03 pm

Only 7 matches qualify for this system this weekend and all odds stated are from Coral long list slip so better may be available

ARSENAL v west ham 2/5
WEST BROM v stoke 11/8
BRENTFORD v Cardiff 4/5
Leeds v NOTT'M FOREST 7/5
Sheff wed v FULHAM 5/2
EVERTON v Newcastle 4/5
Swansea v LIVERPOOL 10/11

as its just a trial stage I'm going for a £1 acca at 171/1 but combinations may prove more productive, only time will tell.
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:06 pm

Mixed success from the 1st weekend, with all 4 prem teams winning but all 3 championship teams failing, its a little to early in the experiment yet to start changing things but it might be worth monitoring each league separately.

Only 3 midweek games qualify within the system and all 3 cone from the championship

BLACKPOOL v Charlton 3/1
Cardiff v BOURNEMOUTH 1/1
WOLVES v Sheff w 1/1

No bets being placed by me for these games not after the championship predictions for the weekend all proving unsuccessful, just monitoring for now.
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:58 pm

So the Championship proves unsuccessful again with only 1 from 3 tonight and 1 in 6 in total. With no league 1 or 2 games qualifying for the system as of yet its still too early to throw it all in, after all it was just a theory and is now just an experiment, I haven't really lost anything either ( well £1 on a 170/1 sevenfold). So I'll continue using the system for a few more games yet before making any tweaks or discarding the theory completely after all there is still the 100% strike rate on prem games to work with. More to follow after tomorrow nights games and the lines have been redrawn, but will start listing them league just to make monitoring easier
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:30 pm

Once again no qualifying games from leagues 1 or 2 so its all on the Prem and Championship

Prem qualifying games currently 4 from 4

ASTON VILLA v Swansea 6/4
Newcastle v ARSENAL 4/7
Stoke v CRYSTAL PALACE 5/2
West Ham v SUNDERLAND 7/2

Championship qualifying games currently 1 from 6

Blackburn v BRIGHTON 12/5
BLACKPOOL v Leeds 29/10
Charlton v READING 6/4
ROTHERHAM v Sheff Wed 6/4


Personally I'll be ignoring the Championship games from a betting point of view and keeping stakes small on the prem games possibly a Yankee after all its only an experiment and still in the very early stages
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:27 pm

Another weekend where the championship yet again doesn't produce the results with only 1 correct prediction and the prem showed mixed results with 2 from 4.

I still like the sound of the system where a team with nothing to play for should be getting beat by the teams that have, the majority of the time.

Questions to be ask myself of the system are:-

Have I set the parameters wrong for those with nothing to play for? 10 points above relegation or below europe/play offs seems an unrealistic to total of points to lose or gain considering the teams between them and relegation /playoffs will also be losing/gaining points. So no I think the 10 point lines are about right. Unless the parameters were changed after each round of games and set to only include the games where one team are in a position that's mathematically impossible to be relegated/promoted/reach Europe, which would probably mean starting the system closer to the end of the season. Which raises the next question?

Was 10 games to go too early to start the experiment? This could be a possibility and only time will tell, especially considering leagues 1 and 2 still have a 20 point or less gap between playoffs and the drop zone and have yet to have any matches qualify under the system. So the experiment will continue although not proving successful at present it may become successful closer to the end of season. And although its not worth following with stakes being placed it prove to be good guide for future seasons.

Could the pressure be getting to the teams with something to play for? Another possibility we've all seen teams go a few points clear at the top then go on a run of bad form and drop right out of contention and we've all seen teams have relegation confirmed then go and win the next couple once the pressure to win is off they produce results that they couldn't whilst under that pressure. So something I hadn't considered when starting this experiment, could be a major floor in the system. Again though it gives me another reason to continue the experiment until the end of the season and raises a further question.

Once a team is confirmed as champions/promoted/relegated should they join the nothing to play for mid table teams? Yes they have nothing to play for anymore, but possibly the players as individuals do, players being relegated may be looking for a move away and to prove themselves good enough to remain in the league. Players being promoted are aware that one or two new signings could be coming in over the summer and again want to maintain their starting place going into a new season at a higher level. Then there's the release of pressure mentioned above, so for the purpose of this experiment games involving these teams will be either be ruled out or included as a separate experiment.

Enjoy the international break and I'll be back in April to follow the experiment through to the end of the season.
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:29 pm

Prem currently 6 from 8
Championship 2 from 10
Leagues 1 and 2 yet to have qualifying games
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Wed Apr 01, 2015 10:47 am

So the experiment goes on selections for the championship are Friday and Saturday only and Mondays games will be assessed after these games once the league has been updated. All odds are from bet365 this time again better odds may be available elsewhere if you do fancy any of the selections.

Prem
Swansea v HULL 16/5
LEICESTER v West Ham 11/8
CHELSEA v Stoke 2/7
Crystal Palace v MANCHESTER CITY 4/6

Championship
MILLWALL v Charlton 11/8
Sheffield W v HUDDERSFIELD 12/5
READING v Cardiff 11/10
Birmingham v ROTHERHAM 23/10

League 2
CARLISLE v Portsmouth 15/8
SHREWSBURY v Dag & Red 4/9

Again no selections for league 1 with the gap between play offs and relegation still less than 20 points
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:05 am

Mixed results again with prem 2 from 3 (man city still to play tomorrow), championship once again proving unsuccessful with 1 result from 4 and league 2 with a 50% success 1 from 2

I've pretty much lost all confidence in this now, but as per previous posts I will continue it til the end of the season on the chance the experiment was started too early, torals currently stand at

Prem 8 from 11
Championship 3 from 14
League 2: 1 from 2
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:32 am

And here's mon/tues selections

Prem
Crystal Palace v MAN CITY 4/6 (as above)

Championship
BRENTFORD v Nott'm Forest 1/1
Cardiff v BOLTON 5/2
NORWICH v Sheff Wed 8/15
WOLVES v Leeds 4/6
Charlton v FULHAM 11/5

League 2
BURY v Morecambe 3/4
Dag & Red v WIMBLEDON 15/8
Oxford v YORK 9/4
Portsmouth v PLYMOUTH 2/1
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

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