New football system experiment

For all systems and staking type talk, hopefully fuelling debate and interesting discussion.

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Mon May 11, 2015 2:04 pm

With Tottenham losing at Stoke that left us with 2/3 on both the result and double chance, would have been a profitable weekend to a level stake with the odds available but still doesn't give me any confidence the system.

Only 2 selections qualify for next weekends round of matches and with the odds available again i won't be placing on money on them. The selections for next weekend are:-

LIVERPOOL v Crystal Palace
Swansea v MAN CITY
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Fri May 22, 2015 1:21 pm

1 from 2 on both the result and double chance last weekend takes us into the final week with very little hope but determination to see this experiment through, the final weekends selections are:-

NEWCASTLE v West Ham
Everton v TOTTENHAM
Stoke v LIVERPOOL
HULL v Manchester United
Manchester City v SOUTHAMPTON

Some nice odds available for some of these, but with the success rate of this experiment for prem only being around the 50% mark I wont be betting on them based on this alone
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

Re: New football system experiment

Postby Sargent M » Wed May 27, 2015 3:18 pm

Football season and experiment complete with the final weekend producing 2 from 5 on the result and 3form 5 on the double chance.

I personally gave up on this sytem being a winning formula quite early oninto the exepriment, but promised myself i'd see it through to the end of season, maybe it could be tweaked even more only betting odds of a certain price or only betting on home/away wins but from the results i've obtained the experiment ends here and i'll look for something new in the future

Final results

Prem = 20 correct results from 38 (53%)
23 correct double chance results 38 (61%)
Prem (last 5 Games) = 10 correct results from 19 (53%)
12 correct double chance results 19 (63%)


Champ = 17 correct results from 44 (39%)
32 correct double chance results 44 (73%)
Champ (last 5 Games) = 11 correct results from 25 (44%)
18 correct double chance results 25 (72%)


L1 = 4 correct results from 8 (50%)
5 correct double chance results 8 (63%)
League 1 only got its first qualifiers for the sytem with 3 games of the season remaining so there is no need for the second lot of stats


L2 = 9 correct results from 25 (36%)
17 correct double chance results 25 (68%)
L2 (last 5 Games) = 8 correct results from 19 (42%)
14 correct double chance results 19 (74%)


Overall = 50 correct results from 115 (43%)
77 correct double chance results 115 (67%)
Overall (last 5 Games) = 34 correct results from 71 (48%)
49 correct double chance results 71 (69%)

So to conclude -

Backing the double chance didnt show enough improvement to warrant taking the much shorter odds

There was only a slight improvement in results after entering the final 5 games of the season, again not enough to warrant following next season

And the backing on the result would have only produced a profit if the odds were greater than evens and that would only be once the leagues enter their last 5 games of the season and that would only be a small profit, unfortunately I didnt monitor the odds for the entire experiment so backing the selections at bigger odds may or may not have produced a profit but this sytem is now assigned to the bin and its time to work on something new
"Lochsong - she's like Linford Christie ... without the lunchbox."
Frankie Dettori (1994)

Sargent M
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:44 pm

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