Acting as a Bookmaker

For all systems and staking type talk, hopefully fuelling debate and interesting discussion.

Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:20 pm

The reason acknowledged by most as to why bookmakers make so much money is that the odds are in their favour because of the build in margin or overround. Whilst this obviously helps them I believe that it’s more the staking habits of punters and the fact that they overestimate the chances of favourites believing they will win whatever the price that enables them to make such huge profits.

They say that bookies balance their books to get an equal profit on each outcome but most of the time this is almost impossible and because of what I said above they don’t need too. You will know many people who place £10 or £20 on bets but who can’t afford to make this same bet £20 over so they cannot win long term with the bookmakers.

With this in mind, I’m going to try and emulate the bookmakers by laying heavy favourites on betfair. To start with it will be laying big favourites who I believe the bookies will have big liabilities son and the price is likely to be too low. We can’t really have the advantage of punters terrible staking habbits but we can make each bet a low enough percentage of our bank so that we stay in the game.

I’m going to do this to level stakes (lay to win £10 or £9.50 after commission) to begin with but I may implement a simple star rating system so that the higher profile the event the more we lay just as it would be with the bookies.

Obviously the lay odds on betfair can be a little higher but many times they are the same and I will be checking with oddschecker to make sure our odds are close enough to those of the bookies. We also have to take commission into account but I’m optimistic that these heavy favourites are low enough for us to make big profits!

Let’s see if we can beat the bookies at their own game! :)
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:23 pm

I actually already started this yesterday. I know aftertiming already :lol: but it's irrelevant really because these aren't tips as such, only events where there are heavy favourites and likely to be lots of money on them.

So first 2 bets were:

BET 1 – Lay Man Utd (v West Ham) at 1.76 for £10 -> WIN £9.50
BET 2 – Lay Man City (v Wigan) at 1.3 -> LOSE £3
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:31 pm

Today I considered laying the short prices in the tennis (Nadal, Djokovic and Del Potro) but the prices on Betfair were a bit too far away from Stan James who are considered as the best bookies at pricing up tennis.

So I am leaving these out for now and sticking to prices closer to the bookies. I think this is more important for tennis than football as tennis markets are easier to model and are more accurate. Favourites win a lot mor in tennis too.

it will be interesting to monitor these though and see what happens. It could still be worth laying at these prices and maybe I will in future.
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:20 pm

Damn, also considered Murray today too (who lost) but his price was too high on Betfair compared with Bookies. He wasn't thst short but I stil felt the price was too low and there could be a lot of mugs backing him who don't realise he's not actually that good on clay and Warwinka arguably better with much more recent practice.

Not only that but Djokovic and Del Potro are losing too. If one of these goes on to lose then I think I will start including these even though we're laying at prices a fair bit higher than the bookies.
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Marin » Thu Apr 18, 2013 4:42 pm

Really like the theory of this idea. Will follow with interest.
User avatar
Marin
 
Posts: 16
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:27 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Thu Apr 18, 2013 5:58 pm

Thanks Marin. Hopefully it will be of interest to some others too and we’ll get some more members on this forum :)

Djokovic came back to win (Not like him!) but Del Potro lost! Start price was 1.18 to lay.

Obviously this doesn’t mean too much long term but it does look like these kind of tennis prices are too short. I mean today you could have layed Murray, Nadal, Djokovic and Del Potro all for less than even money which is extremely good seeing as Murray and Del Potro both lost and Djokovic came very close to losing too.

I am not sure how much money would be taken on the bookies on the very short prices under 1.1 though. I know heavy favourites are generally the most backed but do people really wack loads of money on Nadal at 1.03?! I’m thinking that it might not be worth laying less than 1.1 because of this and that most of the value in laying will be between 1.3-2.0 but we’ll see.

Based on today I think I will start to lay these heavy tennis favourites now even if they are a bit away from the start price and see if these are profitable long term.
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Thu Apr 18, 2013 6:09 pm

Going to lay a few more bets tonight also. Luton look very short for a mid table non-league side to me. A lot of people think they should win easily and 2 (unprofitable) tipsters have backed them on my other site http://www.tipstertable.com. They are also available to lay on Betfair a couple of ticks higher than the best bookie price so on that basis they seem a good lay.

Having a few lays on the darts too. There are some very short prices on Taylor and Van Gerwen who both play twice and again lay odds of no worse than a tick or two above best bookie price is available to low on Betfair. It's worth bearing in mind that bookies seem to try and outdo each other on particular matches to gain custom though as some of the other bookies odds are a fair bit lower. Even so, I'm convinced from what I've seen that many of the odds on darts matches are too low for such a short format where draws are also likely.

BET 1 – Lay Man Utd (v West Ham) at 1.76 -> WIN £9.50
BET 2 – Lay Man City (v Wigan) at 1.3 -> LOSE £3
BET 3 - Lay Luton (v Ebbsfleet) at 1.55
BET 4 - Lay Taylor (v Hamilton) at 1.59
BET 5 - Lay Van Gerwen (v Barneveld) at 1.85
BET 6 - Lay Taylor (v Barneveld) at 1.86
BET 7 - Lay Van Gerwen (v Lewis) at 1.58
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:22 am

Not hugely successful in the darts last night with 3 out of the 4 huge favs winning. However, Lewis should have easily had a shot at a double and could have got at least a draw with MVG playing badly and that would have put us back into profit.

It felt so much better risking much less than it does when you're backing the fav though I must admit.

I have now had 7 bets and had only 2 winners and am only £9.70 down! Another winner and I'm back in profit.

BET 1 – Lay Man Utd (v West Ham) at 1.76 -> WIN £9.50
BET 2 – Lay Man City (v Wigan) at 1.3 -> LOSE £3
BET 3 - Lay Luton (v Ebbsfleet) at 1.55 -> LOSE £5.50
BET 4 - Lay Taylor (v Hamilton) at 1.59 -> LOSE £5.90
BET 5 - Lay Van Gerwen (v Barneveld) at 1.85 -> LOSE £8.50
BET 6 - Lay Taylor (v Barneveld) at 1.86 -> WIN £9.50
BET 7 - Lay Van Gerwen (v Lewis) at 1.58 -> LOSE £5.80

TOTAL WINNERS: 2
TOTAL LOSERS: 5
RUNNING TOTAL -£9.70
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Brian » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:30 am

Going to lay both Nadal and Djokovic in the tennis today. I don't see either of them losing and probably missed the boat after Del Potro lost yesterday but then again I didn't expect Nadal to lose to Zeballos at 1.03 either!

Going to take 1.05 on Nadal. Not quite as low as the bookies 1.03 but hey-ho and Gonna wait for Djokovic to hopefully come in a bit more as this game isn't until 4pm.

BET 8 - Lay Nadal (v Dimitrov) at 1.05
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Re: Acting as a Bookmaker

Postby Terry Tipps » Fri Apr 19, 2013 12:06 pm

Good luck with this Brian.. You would have lost a fortune laying all the heavy favs at Cheltenham tho..
User avatar
Terry Tipps
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:36 pm

Next

Return to Systems and Staking

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest





cron