Kelly Staking

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Kelly Staking

Postby Paddy Punter » Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:47 pm

Anyone had any success using Kelly staking ? Am thinking of giving a go but sounds risky and I herad quarter Kelly is better ?
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Re: Kelly Staking

Postby Brian » Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:11 pm

I'm yet to see anyone carry out Kelly Staking effectively and do better than level stakes.
I think the reason for this is because people tend to overestimate their edge particulrly on the shorter prices.

These shorter prices like 1.1 etc are heavy favourites that everyone thinks will win so common sense syas there's unlikey to be value in it but people feel comfortable attributing a 95% chance to them. I may incorporate Kelly Staking into laying these kind of short prices in my 'acting as bookmaker' thread as I think this has much more chance of being profitable.
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Re: Kelly Staking

Postby The Prophet » Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:44 pm

The Kelly formula is mathematically sound. In theory it is the optimum way to increase your funds.

But it will only work if a) You have an edge b) You can measure your edge accurately.

Both of which are very hard to achieve in sports betting.
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Re: Kelly Staking

Postby Paddy Punter » Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:40 am

Thanks both. I think I will try this on paper first to test how good I am before risking too much money !
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Re: Kelly Staking

Postby Rhinoceros1980 » Sun May 03, 2015 10:52 pm

any feedback on this if anyone has moved along with it?

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Re: Kelly Staking

Postby donatello167 » Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:44 pm

Rhinoceros1980 wrote:any feedback on this if anyone has moved along with it?

A bit late since I only joined today but 2 cents from me: you will have extreme problems correctly determining your edge.

For example let's take today's game in MLB: DET@NYY. Yanks are priced at 1.72 so their chance of winning is 100/1.72=58.14% according to the bookies. But - is it really such?

As all bookies take some juice from the odds they offer you need to find those that are higher than you think they should be. For example - Yanks have won 18 of their 29 home games - 62.06%. DET won 16 of 30 away - 53.33%. So if we reduce Yanks winning percentage with the Tigers winning percentage in a following way - 0.6206/(2*0.5333)=0.5818, roughly the number proposed by the bookies. So your edge would be 0, your EV also 0 and according to Kelly - no bet.

Verlander is pitching terribly against Yanks since 2008, though. His score against them is 5-11 in last 7 years, he is in his second start after his rehab, is in hitter friendly ballpark with A-Rod chasing his 3,000th hit. In my opinion (and this is highly subjective, of course) the odds on NYY should be around 1.63 because of these facts as I think Yankees would win this game in about 61.3%. So therefore I believe I have the edge and would stake x% according to Kelly and hope for Yanks to win.

But - is my calculation correct? How many times in 1000 tries would NYY win? 613 times? Noone will ever know and if they will be successful this time I will pocket the winning or have a long nose if Miggy and Kinsler spoil the home party. It is the play of probabilities and determining the true odd and finding your edge is crucial.

If you have ever visited SBRForums user Ganchrow has tons of articles on this stuff. I recommend reading, although you will need to understand some maths.

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