Suggestions.

Please have a read of the rules of the board before posting and feel frre to submit your siggestions.

Race selection tools.

Postby Dynamite21 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:56 am

(source document from Mr Padraig Kirby deceased)
......................................................................................................................
Racelect Version 962 Operating Instructions.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

As a preamble to these instructions I include what I wrote in the GSUG
Christmas 1993 Newsletter.

"Over the years, hundreds of users have written or rung me to ask
which are the best races in which to use Compunter. It has taken over ten
years to gather and systematise the thousands of races necessary to enable
me to answer this question properly. Having finally succeeded, I have
written a new program which I have called RACELECT which enables you to
sort the races into the order in which Compunter has been successful with
them over the last ten years. The procedure would be to enter all the daily
races, maybe forty on a Saturday, and RACELECT will rank them in Compunter
historic success order. You then enter the top six or ten, or whatever
suits you, into Compunter for betting purposes. This has greatly improved
profitability and the data entry takes only some seconds per race into
RACELECT. I have also used RACELECT with the shareware programs Punter's
Pal and Bookie Beater with satisfactory results."

To start RACELECT place the programme disc in Drive A: Make the
default drive of your computer the A: drive - that is at the C:> prompt
type A: Now at the A: prompt type RACELECT. To halt the programme at any
time and return to the A:prompt hit CONTROL BREAK. It is suggested that you
make a working copy of RACELECT and keep the programme disc in a safe
place. This is extremely important as damage to a floppy is always a
possibility. RACELECT can be copied on to your hard disc if you have one
and run from there. At the c: prompt make a new directory (type 'md race'
if you wish to call the directory race- you may use any name you like).Then
change to this directory by typing 'cd race' (or whatever name you used)
.You should then type 'copy a:*.* c:\race'. Your files will now be copied
on to your hard disc in your 'race' directory. To run type 'racelect'.

Racelect asks you several questions and immediately tells you how to
answer them with the help of your daily paper or your racing paper. Notice
that the first question you are asked is whether the race meeting is Flat
or National Hunt. The answer here is all-important as the programme will
proceed to ask you different questions depending on your selection. If you
give a wrong answer the programme will beep and wait for a correct answer.

You are then asked the questions which determine Racelect's evaluation
of the race. Penalty value is the value of the race to the winner. For
example you will see a Novice Hurdle œ3000 added, Winner 2788.50. The entry
for penalty value for this race is 2788. Likewise with race distances; 2
miles 3 fulongs 188 yrds is 19 furlongs rounded down so enter 19. Do the
best you can to fit each race into one of the Official BHB Categories
listed, but do not worry too much - perfection is not possible here. When
you are finished all the races that you intend to rate, you type END in
answer to the 'time and place of race' question. Racelect will then show
you your input on the screen. If you then hit the ENTER key the program
will rate the races and twice give you the option of printing them out.
That is all there is to it. I have some evidence that suggests that a
rating of less than sixty six may not be the best of betting propositions.

A Warning And A Disclaimer.
You should only gamble with money that you can comfortably afford to lose.
Software is supplied "as-is" and no claim is made or implied as to its
suitability or fitness for any purpose. Our limit of liability would be to
refund the fee paid for the program only. Neither Designs For Leisure nor
any of its members or principals takes responsibility for losses or damages
arising from the adoption or non-adoption of its advice or information or
the use of the software distributed or sold by it.
...............................................................................

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Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:01 am

Nice one Dynamite, I've managed to find this here:

http://www.mediafire.com/download/oh41qt3durxr9xp/COMPUNTER%20V033%20and%20Racelect%20V032.rar

I also needed to download dosbox to get it to work.

It's pretty cool actually... I feel like I've found an old book covered in dust from my loft that might contain the secrets! 8-)

Thankyou Padraig Kirby. RIP.
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Betting archeology.

Postby Dynamite21 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:48 pm

...
Brian if i remember correctly the COMPUNTER program is based on Bayesian Logic. :geek:
Last edited by Dynamite21 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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What?

Postby Dynamite21 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:50 pm

...
Bayesian logic

Named by Thomas Bayes, an English clergyman and mathematician, Bayesian logic is a branch of logic applied to decision making and inferential statistics that deals with probability inference: using the knowledge of prior events to predict future events. Bayes first proposed his theorem in his 1763 work (published two years after his death in 1761), An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances . Bayes' theorem provided, for the first time, a mathematical method that could be used to calculate, given occurrences in prior trials, the likelihood of a target occurrence in future trials. According to Bayesian logic, the only way to quantify a situation with an uncertain outcome is through determining its probability.

Bayes' Theorem is a means of quantifying uncertainty. Based on probability theory, the theorem defines a rule for refining an hypothesis by factoring in additional evidence and background information, and leads to a number representing the degree of probability that the hypothesis is true. To demonstrate an application of Bayes' Theorem, suppose that we have a covered basket that contains three balls, each of which may be green or red. In a blind test, we reach in and pull out a red ball. We return the ball to the basket and try again, again pulling out a red ball. Once more, we return the ball to the basket and pull a ball out - red again. We form a hypothesis that all the balls are all, in fact, red. Bayes' Theorem can be used to calculate the probability (p) that all the balls are red (an event labeled as "A") given (symbolized as "|") that all the selections have been red (an event labeled as "B"):

p(A|B) = p{A + B}/p{B}

Of all the possible combinations (RRR, RRG, RGG, GGG), the chance that all the balls are red is 1/4; in 1/8 of all possible outcomes, all the balls are red AND all the selections are red. Bayes' Theorem calculates the probability that all the balls in the basket are red, given that all the selections have been red as .5 (probabilities are expressed as numbers between 0. and 1., with "1." indicating 100% probability and "0." indicating zero probability).

The International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) was founded in 1992 with the purpose of promoting the application of Bayesian methods to problems in diverse industries and government, as well as throughout the Sciences. The modern incarnation of Bayesian logic has evolved beyond Bayes' initial theorem, developed further by the 18th century French theorist Pierre-Simon de Laplace, and 20th and 21st century practitioners such as Edwin Jaynes, Larry Bretthorst, and Tom Loredo. Current and possible applications of Bayesian logic include an almost infinite range of research areas, including genetics, astrophysics, psychology, sociology, artificial intelligence ( AI ), data mining , and computer programming .

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Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:07 pm

Yes makes sense... I think I read in the notes something about inferring from the data to spot things that the basic form stats aren't showing. Horses must be significantly overbet who have good form figures. Perhaps I should base a lay tipping strategy around that.
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Dig for Victory!

Postby Dynamite21 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:55 am

(here's my latest excavation)

COMPUNTER by D.F.L. Software Version 963
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

COMPUNTER is the work of a retired licensed bookmaker and qualified
accountant who taught himself Microsoft Quick Basic and then Visual Basic
in order to write the program. Although it looks deceptively simple
Compunter is a very complex and sophisticated program. Nearly two thousand
people now use it, some on very old computers and because of this it has
so far always been kept as a DOS text program. This also explains the
comparative absence of menus and screens but does not affect the efficiency
of the program. However this latest version (963 - March 1996) is once
again improved and is pretty and user friendly, particularly with the help
given automatically at the bottom of the screen for each data input. As
before, this new version can be used for both Flat and National Hunt
racing. Up to eighteen horses per race may be entered, depending on the
module you choose to use.

There are four modules in COMPUNTER, making it the most versatile and
useful of programs. It is in fact a whole suite of what are essentially
different programs, consisting of the CLASS module, the FAVOURITE module,
the DAILY PAPER module and the RACING PAPER module. Which module you use
to rate a race depends on your personal preference and your time and
circumstances. The details of the modules are as follows:-

CLASS module: This is designed to replicate the famous system
described by C VAN DER WHEIL over many years in what is now the Raceform
Update. The main features of the system were Consistency, Recent Form,
Class and Betting Forecast. In the Compunter implementation the first two
are derived from the form line, the third from winnings divided by wins and
the betting forecast is entered till the overround is reached. In trials
this module has been quite remarkably successful, admittedly over a short
period of time. You are asked for three inputs (Horse Name, Form, Odds)
first off. When you reach the over round type END and the cursor positions
itself for the entry of Number of Wins and First Place Winnings from your
Racing Post or Sporting Life. The cursor is advanced by hitting the enter
key till all input is finished. Be sure to enter the horses in betting
forecast order, favourite first. In this module the amount to be staked to
draw 100 units pretax is given where a Horse is rated a Value for Money Bet
and is rated "YES". However this is a module which allows a great deal of
latitude as to how to treat its ratings. For instance, a valid strategy is
to re-enter into the D module all of those horses given a "YES" or a "MAY"
rating by the C module.

FAVOURITE module: This saves time by taking advantage of the fact that
approx. 70% of races are won by one of the first three forecast favourites.
So you enter eight inputs (Horse Name, Odds, Form, Days Since, Course &
Distance, Trainer, Jockey, Handicap Rating) for just three horses only.
This module has a particular appeal for people used to the Combayes way and
who like to "narrow the field". Be sure to enter the horses in betting
forecast order, favourite first.

DAILY module: This is the standard module in use since 1990 and which
has had some blindingly brilliant seasons, particularly Flat 1992. This
module now tells you when you have entered enough horses. It does this by
calculating the total chance held by all the horses entered so far and
tells you to stop when you reach an over-round, since you now have every
horse with a realistic statistical chance. However, you need to be careful
if you are intent on a true Value Bet. For a true Value Bet you must enter
all the runners irregardless of the message telling you that you need to
enter no more horses. You enter ten inputs (Horse Name, Odds, Form, Days
Since, Course & Distance, Trainer, Jockey, Handicap Rating, Speed Rating
and Tipsters). The first eight inputs for all the horses entered are
completed first. Then follow the cursor to enter all the speed ratings if
you have them (if not hit Enter for each horse). Likewise for the expert
entries. This module is my own preference and when I am betting seriously
I use it virtually always. Be sure to enter the horses in betting forecast
order, favourite first.


RACING PAPER module: This is as comprehensive an entry as is practical
and a copy of the Life or, better still the Post is essential. You are
asked twenty four questions about each of the horses up to a maximum of
eighteen horses. In fact be careful about races of more than eighteen
runners - you may eliminate the winner before you start. If you have the
time and the diligence this is the one to use, but it does take up to
twenty minutes for a ten horse race. However, it has thrown up more winners
than the other modules over the last three years. It is a great favourite
with the retired and the industrious! You may enter the runners in any
order in this module.

Except in the RACING PAPER module, all of the entry for all of the
horses is done on a single screen by following the cursor and hitting the
ENTER key to advance the cursor. The layout follows the logic of the Racing
Post. This is a real breakthrough and enables you to follow the race as you
enter it and save a great deal of time.

A further change is that you will NOT now lose your data if you forget
to have your printer on or online when you decide to print. You will just
be asked to turn on your printer and try again. And you no longer need to
have CAPS LOCK on. Compunter is now happy with upper or lower case letters.

The experience gained during more than fifty years involvement in
betting, either as punter or bookmaker, has gone into this programme in as
greatly simplified a manner as is possible. After twenty-four years of
research, rigorous testing and experiment it seems that many, many separate
items of data entry are required in order to model adequately the world
that is a horse race. However, testing carried out over these many years
now allows the reduction of these inputs as much as is consistent with
profitable results, but only you can decide which module is for you. Hence
all bells and whistles have been deliberately left out of COMPUNTER in the
interests of speed of data entry.

To start COMPUNTER place the programme disc in Drive A:

Make the default drive of your computer the A:drive - that is at the
C:> prompt type A: Now at the A: prompt type COMPUNTR. Notice only eight
letters - COMPUNTR - the "e" is dropped. To halt the programme at any time
and return to A:prompt hit CONTROL BREAK.

It is suggested that you make a working copy of COMPUNTER and keep the
programme disc in a safe place. This is extremely important as damage to
a floppy is always a possibility, although if this should happen we will
gladly send you a replacement disc.

COMPUNTER can and should be copied on to your hard disc, if you have
one, and run from there. At the C:> prompt make a new directory (type "md
comp" if you wish to call the directory comp - you may use any name you
like).Then change to this directory by typing "cd comp" (or whatever name
you used). With your Compunter diskette in your A: drive and at the
C:\Comp> prompt you should then type "copy a:*.* c:\comp". Your files will
now be copied onto your hard disc in your "comp" directory. To run, at the
C:\Comp> prompt type "compuntr". Do NOT type in any of the inverted commas
that appear in this paragraph.

To start with, COMPUNTER asks you several questions and immediately
tells you how to answer them with the help of your daily paper or your
racing paper. Notice that immediately you are asked whether you wish to
use the Favourite Module - about three minutes per race, Quick Module -
about four minutes per race or the Daily Paper Module - about ten minutes
per race or the Racing Paper Module - about twenty minutes per race. These
modules are virtually separate programs and are intended to meet all your
needs and time constraints. The answer to this Module question is all-
important as the program will proceed to ask you different questions
depending on your selection. It is true that nearly all daily papers now
give a very comprehensive coverage to racing, but even more information is
available in the Racing Post (which I recommend) and the Sporting Life and
COMPUNTER can utilize a great deal of this data. So some advantage accrues
to you via the use of the specialist racing papers, particularly with speed
figures.

The other questions you are asked prior to entry of the horses are
straightforward and should require no further explanation. If you give a
wrong answer the programme will sometimes beep and wait for a correct
answer. Sometimes if you go wrong you will get a message "Redo from start".
This does not mean you restart the program -just enter the current item
which caused the message correctly. This applies anywhere in the program
you get this message - just enter the right data - do not restart the
program - there is no need, it is your computer's clumsy way of asking you
to correct your last input.

COMPUNTER is a value for money oriented system. If you wish to bet on the
Value Bets, the following capitalised instructions are important, though
they are no longer repeated on screen at the beginning of the programme
each time that you run it.

VERSION 963 IS BASED ON THE BETTING FORECAST.
THE TWO HIGHEST RATED HORSES ARE THE COMPUNTER SELECTIONS.
BUT THE FORECAST ODDS OF ONE OR THE OTHER SHOULD BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER
THAN COMPUNTER'S VALUE ODDS - OTHERWISE, BETTING OVER THE LONG TERM IS
APT TO BE UNPROFITABLE.
REAL ODDS,IF AVAILABLE, ARE MORE USEFUL THAN FORECAST ODDS.

HERE IS THE COMPUNTER BETTING STRATEGY.(A UNIT IS 1/40TH OF YOUR BANK):-
IF A TOP TWO COMPUNTER SELECTION IS ALSO VALUE FOR MONEY COMPUNTER SUGGESTS
THAT YOU BET AS FOLLOWS (ON A TOP TWO SELECTION ONLY):-

IF FORECAST ODDS OF LESS THAN 8/13 DO NOT BET.
IF FORECAST ODDS OF 8/13 TO 13/8 BET 6 UNITS WIN ONLY.
IF FORECAST ODDS OF 7/4 TO 13/4 BET 5 UNITS WIN ONLY.
IF FORECAST ODDS OF 100/30 TO 13/2 BET 4 UNITS WIN ONLY.
IF FORECAST ODDS OF 7/1 TO 13/1 BET 2 UNITS WIN ONLY.
IF FORECAST ODDS ARE 14/1 AND UPWARDS BET 1 UNIT WIN ONLY.

The programme can ONLY accept correctly up to the numbers listed above
for each module in each race for rating. If you enter more than this, the
programme may crash. No harm will be done, but you will have lost your
input. If you enter significantly less than the total number of runners
(say 10% less), then the value for money feature of the RACING PAPER module
of this version of COMPUNTER will be detrimentally affected.

Using the DAILY Module, I have found that with a little practice
almost any race meeting can be entered and printed out in about an hour and
a quarter. If you do not have a printer, the programme displays up to
twenty ratings on the screen, depending on the module in use. You can, of
course, ignore the value odds and use the system purely to back the
top-rated selection or the top two selections, as was done for many years.

FEATURES:
All of the possible Compunter questions are asked only by the Racing Paper
Module (R) and the other modules ask you subsets of these questions. All
the inputs are described hereafter.

COMPUNTER begins by asking you which module to use, the name of the
racecourse, the time of the race, whether flat or N.H., whether a handicap
or not. These are one-time entries for each race and should present you
with no difficulty. After you type in an answer, always hit the ENTER key.

Let us now consider one by one the HORSE data inputs required by
COMPUNTER for each horse: -

HORSE NAME: -
You may abbreviate the name, use the full horse name or use the racecard
number instead of the name, as you please.

ODDS: -
The database holds every expression of the odds in a horse race that I have
ever seen. So you cannot really go wrong, but do not enter an odds on price
of less than 1/6. If price quoted is less than 1/6 (e.g 1/8) enter 1/6.
Remember always to use the forward slash / as the divider in prices like
six to four - hence use 6/4 and do NOT use 6-4. For, say, four to one just
type 4 - do NOT type 4/1. This is very important - so remember 8/1 is
entered as 8. Normally the forecast odds in your paper will be accurate
enough for your purposes. There is however one case which causes problems.
It is the case where the odds suggest that only two (or three) horses have
a real chance and the betting forecast reads something like this: - 5/4
Shergar, 6/4 Troy, 7/1 Mtoto, 8/1 Snurge etc. If it turns out that Troy
starts as favourite at, say, evens and Shergar as 2nd favourite COMPUNTER
may very well give you the wrong selection based on the erroneous betting
forecast. It is difficult to solve this problem. Possibly you could regard
them as joint favourites at 6/4 each and enter them that way.

FORM: -
Enter form exactly as in your paper, but omit - (dash or minus sign) and
/ (slash), except in the case of a final - or /.
So begin from the left and type the form in as follows. 3pf-6b8 is typed
3pf6b8 and 1/23-12 is typed in as 12312, but 123/45- is typed as 12345- and
6fb12/ is typed as 6fb12/. You are required to type / (slash) or - (dash)
ONLY WHEN THEY ARE THE FINAL FIGURE. So your form entry may consist of a
combination of all letters and numbers and a final dash or slash. You do
not need six races for entry - e.g. 4-uf2 is perfectly o.k and is typed
4uf2 or 4UF2. Be sure to type 1- as 1- and 2/ as 2/. Do not miss the - or
the /. In the Racing Post form down to ten places is given i.e. 653890 or
109672 or similar are printed before the horse's name. A useful increment
of accuracy is available to you by this service but only you can judge
whether or not the extra expense is justified. Do not worry if a horse has
less than six previous runs or more than six previous runs - COMPUNTER is
programmed to take care of this based on the analysis of thousands of past
races. Do not worry either if the form you are entering is last year's form
- the programme will also take care of this. Only one problem of form
entry has proved comparatively intractable and that is horses (almost
always two year olds) first time out. One of us ignores the problem - when
asked by COMPUNTER for the form just hit the <enter> key and go on to the
next question. Another allots an imaginary FOURTH place finish to all
newcomers (enter 4 as form) and claims that this is a better solution. By
the way, never be misled into the notion that patterns of form can be used
in the selection process by the naked eye. There are millions of them and
only a careful computer programme can begin to make sense of them.

JOCKEYS AND TRAINERS:-
In order to save data input time an abbreviated entry of three letters only
for jockeys and trainers has been adopted. You should use the first initial
letter of the first Christian name and the first two letters of the first
surname e.g. for H.R.A.Cecil type HCE, for R.F.Johnson Houghton type RJO.
Treat hyphenated names as ordinary names e.g. for D Haydn-Jones type DHA.
A couple of ambiguities occur but these have been listed and correct data
input explained at the foot of the data entry screen. Please make careful
note of these. Apprentices, that is 7lb or 5lb or 3lb claimers are a
special case. It is pretty certain that all 5lb and 3lb claimers are in the
data base and their initials may be used. So for example J Tate(3) may be
entered as JTA. But many 7lb claimers are new boys and may not be in the
database and 7LB should be entered instead of the initials. So A Eddery(7)
is entered as 7LB and not as AED.If the rider or the trainer of a horse is
based in Ireland or France it does not affect the entry now. So, for
example, Thierry Jarnet is TJA and D K Weld is DWE, just the same as if
they were British based.

The algorithm on which COMPUNTER is based uses the record of the
jockey's historic percentages and a rating is applied to the winning chance
of his horse. One of the real benefits of the application of computers to
racing has been the establishment once and for all of the benefit conferred
by a top jockey on a horse. For instance, a computer analysis of the
performance of horses ridden by more than one jockey in the 1984/5/6 Flat
seasons established that the difference between a top-class rider and a
journeyman rider is about 4lb. Racing is a game of inches and this
difference can be and often is decisive. The trainer is entered in the same
way as the jockey. Titles are treated as names e.g. Lady Herries is LHE,
but Sir Mark Prescott is MPR. Any ambiguity arising from the abbreviated
entry method of three letters of jockeys is taken care of by the computer
screen. Once again winning percentage is translated into the programme's
private evaluation and incorporated into the final rating.

COURSE & DISTANCE,BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME: -
This is pretty straight forward with regard to actual data entry.Type D for
a winner over this race distance, C for a winner over this course and CD
for a winner over this course and at this distance on any course. Add BF
to these if the horse also was a beaten favourite last time out e.g. CDBF.
Or type BF by itself if only this applies. Type N if none of these apply.

DAYS SINCE: -
Again a easy input but an important one. There is a body of research which
shows that a recent run is a factor in winner selection only so long as the
run was a good one. COMPUNTER uses this information along with the
previous datum of last race placing to estimate the value of the last
outing. This item also enables the programme to adjust last year's form in
the case of a first outing of the season.

AGE and WEIGHT CARRIED: -
These are straight forward. Age is a number e.g. 2 or 12 . Weight is
entered with a comma between stones and pounds e.g. for 12st 7lbs type 12,7
for 9 04 type 9,4 for 09 10 type 9,10. If you go wrong you will get a
message "Redo from beginning". This does not mean you restart the program -
just enter the weight correctly. This applies anywhere in the program you
get this message - just enter the right data - do not restart the program.

TOPSPEED or SPLIT SECOND Time Ratings or POSTMARK or any Form Ratings: -
Just enter the number given on the righthand side in the adjusted ratings
you prefer,but those ratings must be adjusted like Postmark or Topspeed in
the Racing Post, Split Second in The Sporting Life or Formcast in the Daily
Mail for handicaps. Do NOT use the Official Handicap Ratings which are
unadjusted, except for nonhandicaps. The programme will do the rest. Any
claims made for COMPUNTER are based on Postmark or Topspeed ratings. There
is a difficulty with ratings that is not sufficiently appreciated. When a
horse's performance is rated the rating is arrived at in the following way.
First of all the performance is assessed to give a figure in pounds
representing its actual value and then the appropriate "average immaturity"
figure is added in to give the rating. So if a three year old running 10
furlongs in August records a 121 he is credited with weight for age
immaturity of 10lb and his performance is called 131. But he has not done
131 and he may never be able to do it. You must not equate ratings with
actual performance or it will cost you a great deal of money. It is no
longer essential that at least one rating, handicap or speed, be entered,
but it is desirable. If you do not have a rating for a horse and desire to
enter one, you can use the betting forecast to calculate one. If the horse
without a rating is, say, 6/1 then you find horses on either side of this
price, say 4/1 and 7/1. Look up their ratings and rate your 6/1 horse
between them.

EXPERTS SELECTED BY: -
This informs COMPUNTER of the existing consensus (or lack of one) about
this race and tends to act as a sieve to determine as far as possible the
contenders in the race. Best for this is obviously the Racing Post or the
Sporting Life where the selections of as many as twenty tipsters are
recorded, but any paper is likely to have some tipsters and the number who
select each horse should be entered. If no selection enter nought.

TOTAL NUMBER OF RUNS and TOTAL NUMBER OF WINS:-
You can obtain these from the form sections of the Sporting Life or the
Racing Post. All races run and races won by the horse are required. More
detail appears at the foot of the entry screen for these and the following
inputs.

AMOUNT OF PRIZE MONEY and AMOUNT OF WIN MONEY:-
Again available in the form sections. All lifetime earnings, win and place
is what should be entered for total of prize money and all first place
money for total win money. These two inputs, money and races, confirm or
cast doubt on the class of the horse as suggested by the ratings.

NUMBER OF RUNNERS IN EACH OF LAST THREE RACES:-
NUMBER OF LENGTHS BEATEN IN EACH OF LAST THREE RACES:-
These you obtain from the form section. If the horse won enter the distance
he won by as a minus figure e.g. won 1/2 length enter -0.5. If the horse
was beaten but in the first 6 you have to add up the lengths beaten e.g 3
, 2, 3 1/2 , 1 , nk adds up to 9.7 lengths (hd = .1, nk = .2) and 9.7
should be entered for the sixth placed horse. If the horse was out of the
first 6 then the total lengths beaten is usually given in the comment on
the horse and this figure should be entered. If the horse was beaten a
distance, was tailed off, fell, unseated rider, was brought down or pulled
up enter 30 . Remember the distance won by is a MINUS figure, the distance
beaten by is a PLUS figure. The system has to cope with, say, the horse who
won its last three races beating a total of seven horses by a total of 2
lengths and the one who was, say, fourth in his last three races beating
a total of sixty horses, beaten himself only 8 lengths and, say, the horse
who was second, third and fourth beating twenty horses but himself beaten
20 lengths. Which is the best performance? COMPUNTER has an algorithm to
deal with this.

GOING:
From the form pages it is possible to find out whether the horse won over
today's EXACT going. If so enter Y, if not enter N.

PENALTY:
You may be asked in handicaps whether the horse is carrying a penalty. This
will be clear from the racecard and you should answer Y or N.

As stated you will have been asked a subset of these questions
depending on the module and the answering of these questions completes data
entry for one horse and COMPUNTER proceeds to ask you whether the data for
this horse is correct. If you answer N then you can re-enter this horse
correctly, from the beginning. You will then be asked about the next horse.
When you have entered all the horses you intend to enter type END at the
request for a horse's name. This finishes horse data entry (except in the
DAILY module, where you follow the cursor) and brings up a screen showing
the complete race that you have entered.

When you now press the ENTER key or almost any key (except N)
COMPUNTER will proceed to rate the race and sort it into expected order of
finish. It then asks you whether you wish to see the normalized ratings for
each datum for each horse. If you type Y it prints these on the screen.
Normalized simply means that all ratings are brought to a common base for
comparison purposes. They are however given vastly different weighting by
COMPUNTER and these weighting are NOT shown. Also, if there seems to be a
value bet among the top two selections the program lists this. Note that
occasionally a value bet may not be indicated in this way, so you should
keep your eyes open at all times for potential value, especially if you are
watching television or bookies show prices.

You should then answer the questions regarding printing and another
race. If you decide to print out the race ratings and your printer is not
on line, then you will be asked to try again after switching it on. If you
answer yes (Y) with your printer switched off you will NOT now lose your
data.

The germ of the idea which gave birth to COMPUNTER many years ago is
that hidden information is available in the pattern of the totality of a
horse's form in relation to his market position and price and, therefore,
the market is only weakly efficient because the information (being hidden)
is not available to the bettors. For instance, is there a numeric
evaluation of a horse with form reading 123456 and second favourite at 5/2?
There are billions of such combinations of horse data. The breakthrough
lies in COMPUNTER's evaluation in numeric terms of what these essentially
formal patterned blocks of information are saying and concealing.

The algorithms on which this system is largely based were suggested
by Professor Burton Fabricand's work on the Weakly Efficient Theory of the
Betting Market. The rules he evolved for recognizing late breaking
information in regard to a race are a) really only applicable to American
racing and b) far too complex and involved to be applied by the average
human being. Indeed so baffling and prolix are they that they have
virtually defied comprehensible expression, even by the Professor, although
I see that he has now (1996) evolved a formal algebraic expression of them.
However no one can deny the awesome results shown by the application of the
system on the New York race tracks.

Finally, may I offer some thoughts based on fifty years experience as
punter and/or bookmaker. Your bookmaker has some advantages over you.
1) You have to make the decisions i.e. you select the horse and the bet
and, as Damon Runyon remarked "It is 6/5 against any human decision".
2) Your bookmaker cannot quit - whether he likes it or not he has to open
up next morning, so he never gives up in disgust in the middle of a losing
streak. And bookmakers have losing streaks that make the hair turn white.

About number 1) let me say that Compunter is far and away the best
horse racing system I have come across and I have a collection of hundreds
of manual systems - 99% of them rubbish. On the races I select very
carefully, using 3-8 runner non-handicaps of a mile or more valued œ7000
or more between the Goodwood May meeting and Cesarewitch day, during a good
Summer Compunter has for 12 years picked 59% winners in its top two
selections in these races and made a substantial level stake profit
ignoring the value for money feature and just betting on both horses to win
the same amount. The programme is intended for use by people who have
computers and wish to profit from them. As such, it is quite successful and
has consistently shown a level stake profit since 1982, but it is extremely
easy to make serious money with it if you have the temperament and
discipline to stick rigidly to value for money bets and sustain cheerfully
long losing runs.

About number 2) first of all, bet only with money which you can afford
to lose; even then you need to believe that, without flinty fortitude, you
will never make money gambling. Men are not defeated by the mathematics of
the over-round alone, but by their own weakness. You must be bold and
resolute and steadfast in the face of devastating setbacks and
disappointments. Without this iron will you are wasting your time and your
money and you should quit before the pain and distress caused by the
inevitable losing run lays you to waste. When using standard value bets you
are virtually looking for 6/1 winners and a losing run of 10 is less than
3/1 against. Even if you could get 60% winners a losing run of 4 is less
than 40/1 against and 40/1 shots do come up. It is the losing run that
defeats all but the very best gamblers. Unless you can learn to lose with
total equanimity and for long stretches you will never learn to win. As the
great Nick the Greek said "The best thing in life is winning. The next best
thing is losing." Master this and you make serious money.

But please read the following warning and disclaimer.

You should only gamble with money that you can comfortably afford to
lose. Software is supplied "as-is" and no claim is made or implied as to
its suitability or fitness for any purpose. Our limit of liability would
be to refund the fee paid only. Neither Designs For Leisure Software
Company nor any of its employees or principals takes responsibility for
losses or damages arising from the adoption or non-adoption of its advice
or information or the use of the software distributed or sold by it.

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 295
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am

Suggestions.

Postby Dynamite21 » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:31 am

...
Hi Brian, i suggestion increasing the TIP LIMIT to 50 per week for particularly busy periods.
Namely CHELTENHAM, AINTREE (lots of top Jump, AW & Turf races) and ROYAL ASCOT.

Personally i always run out of tips during these times of peak racing activity. The successful tipsters don't generally take-up their full quota at the moment, so this extended option will only be used for the best of reasons. I don't think any of our happy group will tip recklessly given a boosted field of vision. Hopefully we will bring down a "BIG BIRD" or two. Certainly from my point of view i know it will have a positive effect.

from D21 8-)
...

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 295
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am

Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:41 pm

Thanks for the suggestion Dynamite.

Anyone agree/disagree?
User avatar
Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 614
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

Suggestions.

Postby Dynamite21 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 7:24 am

...
Brian, i don't think you should have "shot Roland". He gave some great tips and plenty of reasoning.

My suggestion is... that losing tipsters should be retained (if they show promise) this adds colour and interest to the website.
You could highlight the performance of the top 6 tipsters (on the last 12 months figures).
Nobody is going to back the WHOLE table anyway.

Thus ignoring the dead weight big "LLL!"ossers.....

They could improve up ladder in time, and they give a sense of balance (showing how hard it is to make a profit)
and i just like taking the piss out of them mainly.

you be nice, okay?

btw satisfy your bloodLUST on the no hopers :O\

...

Dynamite21
 
Posts: 295
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:10 am

Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:53 pm

and i just like taking the piss out of them mainly.


Haha, this is more like the reason... you can laugh at me instead - I was beginning to think this game was easy!

We could get a few more tipsters in but the more we have, the more admin required. It wasn't just Roland's bottom line (although it was pretty deep in the red) but also the odds were often incorrect and wasn't convinced by his settling.
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Brian
Site Admin
 
Posts: 614
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:52 pm

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