Daily profits and what to expect

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Daily profits and what to expect

Postby Brian » Mon May 08, 2017 9:05 pm

The yearly total to £10 stakes is just short of £6000 for 2017 but as anyone following more than a few tipsters will have found, the swings to get the profits can be volatile.

The totals for each month in 2017 so far are:

Jan -> 1162.74
Feb -> 2750.68
Mar -> 1402.93
April -> 18.51
May -> 650.51


But I thought it would be helpful to see just how bad it can get in any one aprticular day and across a few days. So here is the daily breakdown of profit and loss for 2017 so far to £10 stakes:

Worst losing day in 128 days is -462

01-Jan-17 -> -259.69
02-Jan-17 -> 161.25
03-Jan-17 -> -136.7
04-Jan-17 -> 42.6
05-Jan-17 -> -339
06-Jan-17 -> -71.05
07-Jan-17 -> -462
08-Jan-17 -> 36.25
09-Jan-17 -> -39.85
10-Jan-17 -> 257.8
11-Jan-17 -> 74.2
12-Jan-17 -> -56.9
13-Jan-17 -> -64.1
14-Jan-17 -> 593.5
15-Jan-17 -> -262.5
16-Jan-17 -> 123
17-Jan-17 -> 223.85
18-Jan-17 -> -41.3
19-Jan-17 -> -105.8
20-Jan-17 -> 368.8
21-Jan-17 -> 238.6
22-Jan-17 -> -8.5
23-Jan-17 -> 162.71
24-Jan-17 -> 309.8
25-Jan-17 -> 202.81
26-Jan-17 -> -73.1
27-Jan-17 -> -78.42
28-Jan-17 -> -233.2
29-Jan-17 -> 204
30-Jan-17 -> 44.38
31-Jan-17 -> 351.3
01-Feb-17 -> 269.75
02-Feb-17 -> 737.4
03-Feb-17 -> 348.04
04-Feb-17 -> 225.98
05-Feb-17 -> -86.4
06-Feb-17 -> 43.25
07-Feb-17 -> 175.15
08-Feb-17 -> -87
09-Feb-17 -> 122.8
10-Feb-17 -> 373.15
11-Feb-17 -> -73.75
12-Feb-17 -> 108
13-Feb-17 -> 128.3
14-Feb-17 -> 35.7
15-Feb-17 -> 49.8
16-Feb-17 -> -208.25
17-Feb-17 -> 172
18-Feb-17 -> 218.93
19-Feb-17 -> 150
20-Feb-17 -> -130.12
21-Feb-17 -> 309.9
22-Feb-17 -> -63.75
23-Feb-17 -> 64
24-Feb-17 -> -142.62
25-Feb-17 -> 44.25
26-Feb-17 -> -99.83
27-Feb-17 -> 155.5
28-Feb-17 -> -89.5
01-Mar-17 -> 23.78
02-Mar-17 -> -126.6
03-Mar-17 -> -72.9
04-Mar-17 -> -192.55
05-Mar-17 -> -81.25
06-Mar-17 -> 133
07-Mar-17 -> 35.3
08-Mar-17 -> -134.4
09-Mar-17 -> 212.15
10-Mar-17 -> -58.45
11-Mar-17 -> 358.99
12-Mar-17 -> 181.63
13-Mar-17 -> 169.78
14-Mar-17 -> 62.25
15-Mar-17 -> 157.88
16-Mar-17 -> -362.4
17-Mar-17 -> -49.94
18-Mar-17 -> 97.7
19-Mar-17 -> -96
20-Mar-17 -> 313.73
21-Mar-17 -> 201.5
22-Mar-17 -> 378.5
23-Mar-17 -> 27.5
24-Mar-17 -> 116.75
25-Mar-17 -> -76.77
26-Mar-17 -> 209
27-Mar-17 -> 235.75
28-Mar-17 -> 234
29-Mar-17 -> -51
30-Mar-17 -> -332
31-Mar-17 -> -112
01-Apr-17 -> -110
02-Apr-17 -> -112.9
03-Apr-17 -> 220.66
04-Apr-17 -> 10.5
05-Apr-17 -> -58.72
06-Apr-17 -> 65.28
07-Apr-17 -> -456.75
08-Apr-17 -> -124.99
09-Apr-17 -> 52.5
10-Apr-17 -> -47.9
11-Apr-17 -> -296.56
12-Apr-17 -> 545.03
13-Apr-17 -> 102.5
14-Apr-17 -> -110.3
15-Apr-17 -> 38.25
16-Apr-17 -> 53.25
17-Apr-17 -> -23.9
18-Apr-17 -> 201.5
19-Apr-17 -> 109.68
20-Apr-17 -> 155.13
21-Apr-17 -> -219.8
22-Apr-17 -> 171.83
23-Apr-17 -> -50
24-Apr-17 -> 230.93
25-Apr-17 -> 361.13
26-Apr-17 -> -11.7
27-Apr-17 -> -77.5
28-Apr-17 -> -352.5
29-Apr-17 -> -53.56
30-Apr-17 -> -229.6
01-May-17 -> 464
02-May-17 -> -20
03-May-17 -> 402.5
04-May-17 -> -340.2
05-May-17 -> 206
06-May-17 -> -411.12
07-May-17 -> 318.33
08-May-17 -> 31
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Brian
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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby pointage » Mon May 08, 2017 11:54 pm

Brian,

Do you have any data on the BFSP +/- for tipsters? Or per day/month similar to the above? Obviously following many tipster from the table can/will lead ultimately to restrictions with bookies leaving the exchange as the viable option for many. Knowing the BFSP +/- for each tipster would be useful for followers and the use of Betsender and other software tools.

Regards

Chris

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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby Brian » Tue May 09, 2017 12:50 am

Hi Chris,

I don't have Betfair Start Price in my database but they can be found in the csvs here: http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/

In my experience the order of profitablility goes like this:

1) Back with bookies best price using BOG
2) Back on exchange at advised price or higher
3) Back using Betfair Start Price
4) Back using Bookie Start Price


Methods 1-3 will show a profit and option 4 will break even at best more likely return a loss.

I'm sure this isn't news to you and you're looking to find how the returns compare. Of that I can't be sure but perhaps I can get these imported and calculated automatically at some stage.

Cheers
Brian
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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby Brian » Tue May 09, 2017 12:28 pm

So I decided to look at yesterday's winners and see how the betfair start price compared with the odds tipped using the bookies on the board. These are the results:

Days Of Heaven 4.0 BSP 4.7
Jonny Delta 4.6 BSP 3.85
Mimics Memory 11.0 BSP 15.16
Pearlita 9.0 BSP 11.37
Hart Stopper 6.0 BSP 7.00
Silken Dancer 9.0 BSP 11.39
Shargiah 5.0 BSP 5.38

I tend to back early on the exchanges and attempt to get better prices if I can but these ar the odds that I manged to get on these selections:

Days Of Heaven 3.9
Jonny Delta 4.52
Mimics Memory 8.8
Pearlita 9.8
Hart Stopper 6.6
Silken Dancer 8.4
Shargiah 4.7

Obviously commision has to be accounted for too but even with that accounted for we have the following profit totals from yesterday's winners:

Profit using bookies: £386
Profit using betfair start price: £479 :o :o :o
Profit betting when tipped on exchange and trying to get matched at a better price than tipped: £373.50

This is only 7 selections and further data and analysis is required but betfair start price certainly looks like a much better proposition than I'd previously thought.

There will be times that horses come right in and you lose a whack but on average and the fact that you can get more guaranteed money matched, the returns could be just as good as those on the board.
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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby Brian » Tue May 09, 2017 12:44 pm

Perhaps yesterday was a bit of a rarity with nearly all the winners drifting a touch to a higher start price but Betafir start price does look like it could be better than I thought.

Any thoughts?
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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby pointage » Wed May 10, 2017 5:27 pm

As has been mentioned before the stats it don't appear to show any patterns enabling profits to replicate BOG with the bookies. Either betting just before the off or the night before, if the tips are profitable at a reasonable ROI, then it looks like profit is there to be made by all. Consistently shortening prices offset by the occasion a ridiculous price is offered on the exchange.

From a general discussion with friends on betting on the exchange it transpired that they don't bet on horses due to the time it takes to find best odds bet with different bookies etc. Some follow a couple of tipsters but are put off following many due to commitments in the evenings and mornings due to family life. The same people however would accept lower returns (less than betting with the bookies the night before at BOG) if the time taken to ''make'' money was greatly reduced by automation of betting.

Could a BFSP ROI be easily generated for each tipster moving forward? This would potentially attract followers who would pay monthly subs, buy betsender and follow their favourite tipsters who show profit at BFSP. An avenue to explore? Thoughts?

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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby Brian » Wed May 10, 2017 8:51 pm

Excellent comment and suggestion Chris.

Many people are indeed lacking the time to place bets these days and this why I'm looking at a cut of time for tips.

Betfair Starting Price will be added to our data in the next few weeks and will display the profit/loss per tipster. Perhaps we can even have a separate table for it.

If the stats look good I will also look at adding functionality to have your tips placed automatically on the exchange, based on who you are following. Without needing to have your computer on.

I thought about this before but when tips are submitted there isn't alway enough liquidity. Obviosuly this isn't a problem when backing at betfair starting price.

So the options will be:

1) Back early using bookies juicy offerings based on the summary alerts or before if you can/prefer
2) Back at 1pm when all tips are in on the exchange
3) Have the site back all your tips at betfair starting price

We shall make it our mission to make people more profitable and this is just the start 8-)
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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby pointage » Thu May 11, 2017 11:01 am

Brian,

Just a quick point any tips placed automatically can't be placed EW in betsender (other software may be able to place these thoguh) so would the BFSP ROI be reflective of all horses being bet to win (even if advised EW) or at the advised EW BFSP? If bets can't be placed each way via future functionality or through current software methods it may be best to state this and reflect this in the stats. Some tipsters ROIs will show reasonable differences between advised and BFSP on the nose but this gives subscribers accurate information on which to base their potential betting strategy.

Chris

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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby Brian » Thu May 11, 2017 1:04 pm

Good point. It is do-able to add the profits for each way because betfair do provide the betfair starting price for the place markets.

We may run into problems where people are settling prices based on bookies offers of extra places where it wouldn't have been placed on the exchange though. We may have to simply say that bookies offers no longer count?

Another consideration is commission. The default is 5% but I am on less than that and others will be too. I think we should show the results without commission at least to start with.
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Re: Daily profits and what to expect

Postby pointage » Thu May 11, 2017 3:12 pm

Brian,

it depends on who the BFSP stat it aimed at. If the stat is aimed at people who purchase software to automate their bets and let it run at BFSP for tipsters they follow I would say the above doesn't cater well to them. If the stat is to provide information to subscribers who manually place bets then it provides what they need.

If the stat is aimed more at those who would automate their betting, due to wanting to follow numerous tipsters without having to manually place bets , I would say the EW stat needs to be excluded and all tips classed as ''on the nose''.

For instance Betsender doesn't allow a tipped EW bet to be placed EW, the software places the bet on the horse; to win only. If the horse places it is a -1 pt in betsender, if the horse wins however the returns are greater than that of a potential EW bet.

If the BFSP stat for each tipster was based on all tips to win only then this would reflect the potential profits for subscribers who don't want to spend time betting on many horses but would subscribe and automate their betting.

Those of us who want max value will always try to find it, BOG, setting odds on the exchange before bets are triggered etc. Others just want steady returns from minimal effort and those who want that wouldn't necessarily follow tipsters based on having to place bets manually on the exchange at BFSP with a good ROI.

If the stat was set up for those who want to automate their betting the ROI of some tipsters would be greatly reduced even swing from a positive to a negative but that is a good thing IMO. It shows that they know what they are talking about, see value and that confidence can be taken from that.

Essentially I think my point is that the stat should be aimed at a ''type of subscriber'' that wants a different way of making money other than betting the tips with bookies at BOG.

Settling all tips with a 5p rule 4 would represent the lowest ROI anyone could get, and a note added that this is the case and greater returns are possible just can be increased by regular use for the exchange.

Chris

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