Suggestions.

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Suggestions.

Postby Dynamite21 » Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:15 pm

I have made it possible for Tipsters to settle their own tips with a list of rules/instructions


Brian, i must be tired i can't find this?

GOT IT!
it looks good, you have been busy :ugeek:

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Suggestions.

Postby Dynamite21 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:55 am

Lifetime suggestion No. 129,137
(but who's counting?)

Let's turn the light ON, scary prospect i know, and toggle the strike rate percentage totals.
To show the current win&place number AND more importantly the actual 1st place figure.

8-) Gareth

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Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:28 pm

Haha! Lots of suggestions is better than no suggestions, so keep them coming mate :)

So you'd like to see strike rate based on winners only or a figure alongside the current strike rate to compare with?
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Suggestions.

Postby Dynamite21 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:53 am

Brian,

two percentages would be best i think, it would be radical to ditch the current situation. I thought about using a toggle between the two percentages, but that might be difficult.

i know tipsters have a lot of success with there big priced placed horses. But the current strike rate percentages also include placed bets that make a very small profit or even a loss.

The newbie punter or occasional vistor maybe receiving a rose tinted view.

Also the win strike rate can then be compared with the average price of the winners. Thus producing a figure to indicate the extent of the value achieved.

Another byproduct would be to give any potential follower a wake-up call as to the likely length of the tolerable losing runs (eg. A profitable Tipster with a 15% win strike rate would have 85 losers during a stretch of 100 bets) ...specialist subject "the bleeding obvious".

8-) Gareth
Last edited by Dynamite21 on Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Suggestions.

Postby BettorValue » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:27 am

I think ELS (estimated losing streak) is a very good stat to include Brian for sure.

Dynamite21 wrote:Also the win strike rate can then be compared with the average price of the winners. Thus producing a figure to indicate the extent of the value achieved.


I think here you may be referring to the 'edge' a tipster has maybe, and again this is a very useful stat to include. There is a calculation for this Brian and I have it somewhere if you need it.
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Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:23 pm

Thanks both, I will look at getting this included.

Yes that betting edge calculation would be very useful and I'm interested to see how that works. Please send on! :)

Cheers
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Suggestions.

Postby Dynamite21 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:07 am

Hi Brian

how's the self-settling going from your point of view? Was it a GENIUS idea :idea: of mine.
I know there was some teething problems, but they seem to have ironed themselves out.

Eagle has responded well to the occasional jerk! on the lead, now a candidate for top student.


8-) Gareth

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Re: Suggestions.

Postby BettorValue » Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:55 am

Here is the ELS details Brian (from The Staking Machine Web Page)

The Expected Losing Sequence can be used to calculate our start bank and start stake and ensure that we avoid bankruptcy.

For instance, if you know your Expected Losing Sequence is 10 then your start bank needs to be able to handle this losing run and more !

Using a Level Stakes Staking Plan you might want a start bank of 2 x E.L.S. So if our E.L.S. was 10 then the start bank would needs to be 2 x 10. On this occasion the start bank would need to be 20x our start stake. Assuming a start stake of £10 - you would need a start bank of £200 to be able to deal with the Expected Losing Sequence.

Some people will go even further and virtualy eliminate the chance of bankruptcty by using a start bank of 3 or 4 x E.L.S.

The equation used to calculate the Expected Losing Sequence is:

Log(n)/-log(1-SR)= E.L.S.

If you want to have a play around yourself you can use Microsoft Excel and copy paste this formula :
=LN(n)/-LN((1-(SR/100)))

n = number of bets

SR = strike rate as a percentage
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Postby Dynamite21 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:12 pm

I suggest that this suggestion needs digestion... good luck Bri.

8-) Gareth

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Re: Suggestions.

Postby Brian » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:57 pm

It sure does Dynamite... !

The self-settling was indeed a superb idea thank you. It helps that the tipsters we have are very honest like you say.

Now I've chucked in some automation too, the records are mostly kept up to date within minutes, even quicker than Tracy!

We will all get replace by machines eventually :lol:
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